The International Council on Clean Transportation’s (ICCT) latest market monitor reveals a combination of ‘carrots’ and ‘sticks’ are the key to driving uptake of zero-emission vehicles across Europe.
The monitor, covering the first quarter of 2025, finds that despite a 20 per cent fall in sales across the entire market, sales of zero-emission (ZEV) heavy duty vehicles rose to 4,100, up 45 per cent from Q1 2024.
This was largely driven by growth in the light- and medium-duty trucks segments, with the share of ZEVs in this segment rising to an all-time high of 18 per cent (1,700), a doubling of both sales share and absolute sales from Q1 2024.
Figure 1. Historic sales of zero-emission heavy trucks
Most of the sales increase was seen in the Netherlands, where sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks rose rapidly in Q1 2025, with 510 ZEVs sold – representing 83 per cent of all light- and medium-duty trucks sold and nearly three times higher than the total sold in all of 2024.
Importantly, the Netherlands provides incentives for the development of private and public charging of heavy vehicles, and for energy-efficient techniques that are built into electric trucks (eg regenerative braking) via the Energy Investment Allowance (EIA), a scheme that encourages businesses to invest in energy-saving and sustainable energy technologies. Under the scheme, eligible businesses can deduct a portion of their investment costs for energy-saving assets from their taxable income.
The Netherlands also recently introduced zero-emissions zones across 15 municipalities, with all new vans and trucks registered from the start of 2025 entering these zones required to be zero-emission.
Figure 2. Sales of heavy trucks by powertrain in Q1 2025
Although the lighter end of the market was up, the heavy truck sales figures were less rosy, with zero-emission vehicles accounting for just 1.5 per cent of sales in this market segment.
Countries dominating the sales of heavy zero-emissions trucks were Germany, France, the Netherlands and Sweden, with Sweden having the highest sales share of zero-emission heavy trucks.
Volvo and Renault, the two brands of the Volvo Group, continued to dominate the ZEV market by volume. They comprised a combined 57 per cent share of all zero-emission heavy truck sales while MAN jumped to third place with a 15 per cent sales share following the launch of its eTGX model.
Figure 3. Market share by country
It is possible that sales of zero-emission heavy trucks may increase in Q3 to comply with new regulations commencing in July 2025 that require carbon dioxide reduction targets of 15 per cent for most new heavy trucks sold in the EU-27.
Australian Implications
The most obvious lesson to take from this data is that carrots alongside sticks are vital. We have seen this time and again in other jurisdictions that wide-ranging incentives programs are needed to encourage the market to shift.
Wide-ranging incentive programs mean not just looking at the vehicle purchase but also at the vehicle technology and required charging and refuelling infrastructure that supports decarbonisation.
Figure 4. Manufacturer market share by vehicle segment in Q1 2025 Vs Q1 2024
There have been some programs in Australia with incentives though these have largely focused on private commercial vehicles. One outlier is the recently closed NSW Government EV Fleets Incentive, which included light commercial battery-electric vehicles, but there has been no coordinated national approach.
HVIA has long been advocating for an incentive program to assist with the transition to a net-zero future, calling for incentives to be rolled out covering not only vehicle purchases but also infrastructure creation alongside diagnostics and technology which assists with decarbonisation.
You can dig into the ICCT’s data directly here. To learn more about HVIA’s decarbonisation advocacy, reach out to Chief Advocacy Officer Adele Lausberg at a.lausberg@hvia.asn.au.
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